Abstracts Transportation

Herramienta para la gestión de la calidad del aire en Manizales a partir de modelos de transporte y factores de emisión

by Luis David López Buitrago

Manizales, Colombia is a city that has different challenges in terms of mobility, its complex topographic conditions, the increased use of private vehicles and decreased use of public transport, generate a combination of complex actors that can put any city in difficulties. Vehicular congestion is a problem, but the pollution associated with this increase in traffic and the consequences that this can bring to air quality is also a concern. This research develops a methodology for estimating emissions based on a Bottom-Up approach using a transportation planning model. Starting from a base modeling scenario in 2017, the calibration and validation of this methodology is performed. Ten pollutants are evaluated (BC, CH4, CO, CO2, VOC, N2O, NOx, PM10, PM2.5 and SO2). From the analysis performed for the base year 2017, it is highlighted that about 55% of SO2 emissions are from light vehicles, motorcycles contribute 67% of VOC, 59% of CO and 58% of CH4. Subsequently, a Business as Usual scenario was defined for the year 2030 and 3 more future scenarios for the same year, which propose changes in the supply and demand of the general transportation system of the city of Manizales. The following scenarios are proposed: 1) a Public Transportation Fleet Renewal scenario, 2) a scenario of technological changes by applying an expert survey and 3) a scenario of fuel improvement. The future scenarios show reductions in at least one of the pollutants, with emission reductions of up to 24% in CO2 and 64.3% in SO2 with respect to the Business As Usual 2030 scenario.